Waves hope to crash down on 24th-ranked Bulldogs

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/04/2012 - Malibu, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - West Coast Conference foes meet in Malibu tonight, as the 24th-ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs pay a visit to the Pepperdine Waves.

Gonzaga was recently re-admitted into the AP Top-25 after winning four in a row from January 14-26, but the team is likely to fall out of the next poll after suffering an 83-73 loss at BYU on Thursday night. Despite that setback, the Bulldogs are enjoying another stellar campaign, as they come into this clash at 17-4 overall and 7-2 in conference. They have proven to be mortal on the road though, going 3-3 to this point in the season, and they currently trail first-place Saint Mary's-CA by two games in the WCC standings.

At the other end of the spectrum sits Pepperdine, a team that has won just eight of its 22 games this season, and only two of its 11 WCC bouts. The Waves have only one victory in 2012, having lost nine of their last 10, with the only win coming last Saturday in a 74-62 decision against visiting Santa Clara. Pepperdine is an even 5-5 at home this season, and prior to last week's win over the Broncos, the team had lost three straight in front of the Firestone Fieldhouse faithful.

This is the second meeting of the season between these two teams, with Gonzaga easily winning the January 5 encounter in Spokane, 73-45. As a result, the Zags own a 41-31 lead in the all-time series, and they have won each of the last 21 matchups. The Waves' last win over the Bulldogs was at home in 2002.

Gonzaga's first-ever trip to Provo, Utah to face BYU didn't go quite according to plan, as the Bulldogs shot just 3-of-19 from three-point range and committed 19 turnovers in what turned out to be a double-digit loss. Perimeter shooting has been a problem for the Zags recently, as in addition to the poor showing against the Cougars, they went just 1-of-11 from beyond the arc against Portland in their previous outing. For the season however, the team is shooting 36.2 percent from long range. Elias Harris (13.3ppg, 7.9 rpg) heads a list of four players averaging double figures in scoring for Gonzaga, which puts up 73.8 ppg while allowing 63.7 ppg. With Harris leading the way, the Bulldogs are +6.6 in rebounding margin, coming up with more than 37 rpg. Sam Dower came off the bench to score a team-high 15 points in the loss at BYU, while Gary Bell, Jr. added 14 points, Marquise Carter had 13 and Robert Sacre chipped in with 11. Bell scored 15 points to lead Gonzaga to its blowout win over Pepperdine last month, while Kevin Pangos and Sacre added 11 points apiece.

Pepperdine is one of the worst scoring teams in the country, as it averages just 59.0 ppg in hitting 39.3 percent of its field goal attempts and 32.5 percent of its three-point tries. The Waves have done a solid job on the glass, laying claim to a +3.2 rebounding margin, but they are -3.1 in turnover differential. They have been decent at the defensive end, yielding 63.8 ppg on typical shooting outputs of 42.1 percent overall and 34.0 percent from beyond the arc, but again, offensive ineptitude has been the team's biggest problem. There is only one double-digit scorer on the roster, but even Taylor Darby's 12.1 ppg on 47.2 percent field goal efficiency isn't going to scare anyone. Darby poured in 18 points and Joshua Lowery added 11 more, but it wasn't enough as Pepperdine fell at Loyola Marymount earlier this week in a 67-57 final. The Waves made good on only 38.2 percent of their total shots, missing 13 of their 15 three-point attempts along the way.

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Big Ten Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa

Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.

Should be in:

Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?

Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.

Work left to do:

Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.

Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.

Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.

Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.

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